Logbook: amazon
Are the Tailings Ponds About to Burst in the AI Goldrush?
In a sign of the times Anthropic has listed a net loss of 80 BILLION with a b…
Anthropic’s net loss widened sharply to $80.7 billion in the first half of this year, in large part due to a rise in the fair value of bonds convertible into shares of the AI startup, according to a draft prospectus for a planned initial public offering that was reviewed by Reuters.
I have been steadfast in saying AI is a seriously overpriced commodity that has been nothing more than a goldrush. AI is just google search in a trench coat. And that the markets rush to stake a claim in the Gold rush era is much like the 1849 gold rush.
FINANCING COSTS
At an investor meeting on October 14, Anthropic told prospective IPO investors that its third-quarter revenue jumped 45% to $16.8 billion from the previous quarter, Reuters reported, citing people familiar with the matter.
While the figures eased some concerns about the enormous costs of developing AI systems, some investors were disappointed by the slowing sequential growth rate. Revenue had more than doubled from the first quarter to $11.6 billion in the second quarter.
The thing is here is this is only half the numbers, most LLMs have been pushing all CapEx expenditures to a second set of books and it makes these companies look better than they really are. When all of the loans come to be due it is going to be a financial bloodbath because what we are seeing is AI is not ready for the mainstream for constant use. The factor that AI has been a consistent loss leader and companies have no clue how to monetize it in a way that is not going to drive users off they are stuck with negative gains.
A cooler reception for Anthropic’s IPO could weigh on the wider AI market, whose near-term prospects investors see as hinging largely on the share sale’s success, ahead of rival OpenAI’s potential listing next year.
Reuters reported in September that Anthropic posted a net loss of $42 billion in 2025, with most of that stemming from a similar accounting charge. As Anthropic’s valuation climbed, the estimated fair value of those notes tripled year over year.
The thing is, investors they thought they had a slop generating gold shovel paradise and the new car smell of AI is wearing off. While LLMs are trying to say that AI will destroy the world and eat your firstborn and knock up your daughter … The fix still is a power switch in the end.
Attributions from:
reuters – Anthropic logged net loss of over $80 billion in first half of 2026
CoffeeCommander.net – Anthropic says they are profitable as long as you don’t check the inbox for bills.
CoffeeCommander.net – Allbirds Newbird Smartbird AI what’s next flipthebird?
CoffeeCommander.net – Hyperscaler AI Earnings Calls Today .(updated)
Mad AI Disease is getting worse and they know it.
I have written about how AI is paralleling Mad Cow Disease and it is getting worse and OpenAI is proving it.
OpenAI has let go of multiple contractors tasked with reviewing chatbot prompts after finding out they relied on artificial intelligence to complete their assignments. Thousands of contractors check real ChatGPT user inputs to help improve the chatbot’s responses. They are meant to bring a natural human touch to the systems, yet several workers are skipping this step entirely. 404 Media found that multiple contractors hired to improve OpenAI’s models have been fired for using AI to carry out their work.
One of the issues with the current generation of LLMs is finding content that is human-created and not AI slop. Feeding LLMs bad or slop data triggers rapid functional decay. OpenAI hired people to try to stop this digital prion disorder from getting worse; instead, they tried to shortcut the process by using slop to stop AI from generating more slop. Right now, Obi-Wan is pleading with Anakin: ‘You were the Chosen LLM! It was said that you would destroy the slop, not join it! Bring balance to the model, not leave it in darkness!’
AI Trainers Risk Model Collapse
Some AI models can exhibit signs of ‘model collapse’, where systems trained repeatedly on AI-generated data can become increasingly degraded. Research published in Nature has found that indiscriminate use of model-generated content in training can cause models to lose information from the original data distribution.
Model collapse in my opinion is closer than we think. For every major AI maker to join together and say they need to slow down and at the same time to say to the government to stop them, it is a clue that AI makers are not saying what is going on. They need a lifeline and they are working hard to stop the outcome. If you have watched AI it peaked a few months ago and now the AI is getting worse little by little lately. It is missing on OCR, it is slightly off on more things now.
‘Our contracts strictly prohibit the use of LLMs to complete projects and we enforce that. We invest heavily in our tools and systems to detect misuse and ensure our experts comply with project rules and contract terms. When we confirm an expert has used AI to complete a task, we immediately remove them from the project.’
The problem is these AI auditors are stuck, they can’t even fart these days without having some AI close by, If you think about it making a call: AI; requesting chat help: AI; running a Google or Bing search: AI. These people cannot help but to feed the machine and make AI mad cow disease worse.
Attributions from:
Tech Times UK – OpenAI Hires AI Trainers, Then Fires Them for Using AI to Train AI: ‘Getting Paid to Make AI Worse’
US GOV POTUS TO CHANGE AI TO SI? WTF! ITS FUBAR!?
Ok, Now in English, the President of the United States wants to change AI (artificial intelligence) to SI (Système International d’Unités… wait, shit, “Super Intelligence”). Oh please, AI is not super, Its average as a matter of fact it is the most average thing you have ever met.
The problem with this is he is trying to apply a title to AI it does not deserve. Albert Einstein and Fermi could be called supermen because they did super things. AI can not theorize past what it knows both of those men theorized greater things and eventually achieved them. AI has achieved watching every episode of married with children.
US President Donald Trump says the term artificial intelligence (AI) makes the technology “sound fake” and wants it to be called “super intelligence”.
To anyone born in the last 120+ years knows that an artificial robot is the most powerful thing in the universe. The fact that the POTUS thinks Super sounds better is completely wrong, How many things have we added the word super to that has been a massive failure.
“From this point forward, all of United States’ documents, and hopefully the world’s, will be changed to use the more accurate term ‘super’ as opposed to ‘artificial’. So it’s ‘super intelligence’,” Trump said. In the past week, Trump asked his social media followers to vote on other potential new names for AI including superior intelligence, extreme intelligence and supreme intelligence.
Lets go through this
1: Super intelligence – No doesn’t fit, the factor is if you think about it even in the US patent office SI will not work because it clashes with so many things. Metric for example. Also “super” which is a common word , and “Intelligence” another common word. There is nothing super about AI as a matter of fact its Average at everything not super at everything.
2: superior intelligence – Read above.
3: supreme intelligence – fucking stop already Read above
4: extreme intelligence – We had this already this on X, I think it called it self MechaHitler.
While Trump’s ambassador to the UN Michael Waltz later said: “If you didn’t see the president’s speech, it’s now super intelligence. I think he’s absolutely right.” However, when asked for his thoughts on the new name, Canada’s minister of AI Evan Solomon said: “Canadians are not enthusiastic, at all, about renaming things,” in an apparent reference to Trump renaming Lake Ontario.
The fact that the Executive branch is trying to force this one is worse than anything because it shows the bifurcation of the people vs the lords, This move is divisive and people that run things know this. but as far as AI is concerned we are at no level of super.
The biggest concern here is the POTUS renaming a device that the current GOV has an interest in (10%) is seriously concerning. Collusion is a hell of a thing. The second some dumbass at Nvidia, Anthropic, or any vendor tied to federal contracts or CHIPS Act money renames their product to ‘SI’ to appease the executive branch, they’re walking into shareholder derivative lawsuits and SEC fraud filings. You can’t rebrand narrow autocomplete as ‘Superintelligence’ on an SEC filing without committing fraud.
Call me when the positronic man happens, When Andrew Martin happens and Asimov rolls in his grave I will accept SI, but the more correct name of AI stands with me..
But this distraction optics should not be listened to and this is why this post is short. Coffee time!
ed note- Mr Data never called himself Super.
Attributions from:
BBC – Trump wants AI to be rebranded as super intelligence. Will it work?
Attack of the Christmas 2026 edition.
Every year Christmas for retail comes earlier and earlier.
ed note- Christmas the holiday will be properly capitalized while retail christmas will not.
We are not even through the first month of school for kids and now store are decorating for christmas. The thing is when I was young seeing christmas decorations before thanksgiving was borderline blasphemy. Always the day after Thanksgiving would be the first time stores would decorated for the holiday
Now Stores push christmas in july, christmas in September , christmas because we say so.. and so on. Retailers need to stop this. Retailers think buy stuffing this holiday in our face we are going to buy more… the reality is we buy less. What corporations miss is the time that makes or breaks for a quarter for the holidays gets so diluted that the black friday sales and cyber monday sales just get looked over as another day of retail manipulating customers.
For the most part those two days are a joke because if you eye something you want for Christmas, Go to that store starting in October and take a photo of the price of the item you want you will see a very interesting trend. About October 7th that price will start going up. By November that price will be about 15 to 20% higher than the price throughout the year, BUT!, you will see “BLACK FRIDAY DEAL 18% Off new low Price! “. So that cool thing you have been eyeballing most of the year goes from $100 to $120 down to $102 in price with a grand savings of negative $2 dollars.
Stores need to get their heads out of there asses, they are making Grinches of everyone. Because its about this time now we start getting yelled at DO YOUR CHRISTMAS SHOPPING!, uhh fuck no, I have bills to pay. year after year for the last 15 years the christmas shopping black Friday and cyber Monday days are so diluted that they don’t understand it.
I have a recommendation to all retail stores out there. Let people have their holidays, Let people have Columbus day, Give the kids Halloween without the parents worrying if they have enough for Christmas, let them have Veterans day, and lastly lets have Thanksgiving without worrying until 11:59:59pm of not having to deal with christmas shopping.
Give people a break, Allow them to swing into Christmas rather than smashing them in the face with unending christmas sales… Let people start to decorate without the guillotine of christmas sales being thrown into them every place they go. What retail doesn’t want to acknowledge is happy people will spend more money rather than depressed stressed out people. Depressed stressed people will buy 20 shitty little things just to get christmas shopping out of the way vs the happy person putting in thoughts to what people want and buying 20 well thought gifts out for Christmas.
The last few years I asked my SO if we could make the week after Christmas the time to shop for christmas because 9 times out of 10 you get deals that are pre-October prices and summer slump deals.
Things I’ve heard about data centers from no one in particular.
1: Everyone needs a Data Center.
Not everyone needs a data center. No one wants a white noise machine that plays above safe hearings levels. The thing is data Centers are taking up building and land next to residential areas because they are looking for the shortest plug to the outlets. Why go out to the middle of the desert and annoy no one when you have all you need on the edge of a city . They come in and asks towns for tax breaks and special use overrides in water/electricity uses and make everyone around them poorer for having them come in . Its like saying a billionaire moving into a small town will make everyone rich but he stays up all night partying and takes a dump on your front lawn.
2: Everyone gets rich around a Data Center.
If you want a tax break without even having to go to your city meetings are too anxious and don’t like your being home being valuable because taxes are too high, The data center running is what you want! If you like your water brown and want everything to look like the flooded delta of a river because of overruns in cooling, Get a data center. If you think you don’t replace your electronics enough and you want them to wear out faster due to brownouts every time the massive cooling fans kick up. Get a Data Center! If you don’t want to listen to your wife and need an excuse rather than ignore her and her question if you have hearings loss, Get a data center! Data centers should not be these things that are city blocks wide. if a place wants a data center, a reasonable installment that is agreed in three ways between the municipalities , the citizens and the data company should be key. These data centers also let off massive plumes of heat that can hurt humans and animals.
3: Data Centers use no electricity.
If your still reading at this point you deserve this cookie, because this was a comment said by a fairly high up person. This is just batshit. when you have AI companies buying the rights to spin up old nuclear reactors this farce is to false the pants are not only on fire they exploded into a supernova. A single modern hyperscale AI data center cluster draws much more than an office building, it demands 300 to 1,000+ megawatts which is around powering the scale of powering every house in the state of rhode island. I mean honestly if you believe this, I got some snake oil for you that cures boredom, homeschooling, every disease, the shits, your car not starting, your ex girlfriend in one convenient formula.
Bullshitteron.. Apply directly to the anus.
Bullshitteron.. Apply directly to the anus.
Bullshitteron.. Apply directly to the anus.
Bullshitteron: May cause dizziness, dehydration, Temporary blindness, death, animal insanity, HOA infections, Oscillopsia, hearing loss, Cash loss, muscle loss, real estate loss, Sanity loss, Death, life, Grandma’s cake to fall, operation of hair dryers while sleeping. Contact your doctor if you really think a data center may improve your life – Data Centers are not evaluated by the FDA nor have they been proven to show any affects or effects that are positive in a localized injection.
OpenAI claims AI is as capable as humans now, Great now it will screw up faster.
Here we go again, CEO or some three letter title in a company saying their AI is more Smarter/faster/capable than humans.
Greg Brockman, who leads product development at OpenAI, said he believes that the company’s latest AI model, Astra, due to be available inside ChatGPT in coming days,qualifies as “artificial general intelligence,” or AGI. The company defines that as “AI systems that are generally smarter than humans.”
Oh brother we are doing this now. I thought we were over this with the 4g thing, when 4g came out they said THE SKY is the limit! Than when we got what really came out we did not even get an apology letter. But not we are slipping in extra letters with AI now. AGI is like saying ATM Machine, the reason I picked the Automated Teller Machine Machine is this is foreshadowing. AGI is going to be the subset AI, Why profit off of one AI when we can make thirty. It gives the vibe if you use the AI CPA and right after the moment you filing your taxes it goes “would you like to have the AI lawyer to check tax laws and assets to see if your negative tax return will affect any of your properties with liens” *insert 399.99.
Astra, which the company announced Thursday, has been trained to use computers in much the same way people do
So you mean it will work for 5 minutes, forget what you were talking about, and browse reddit and doomscroll tiktok? Oh wait LLMs baked that in already. That’s where they got volumes of data from.
OpenAI said, and can tackle lengthy tasks like financial modeling, tax preparation and video game development with minimal human oversight. (The Washington Post has a content partnership with OpenAI.)
We understand WAPO, your lips are brown. Give or take the way the WAPO has handled itself of the past two plus years it shows.
“We’re at a point now where these models are solving these 100-year-old math problems but you can also use them to accelerate the economy and benefit you in your personal life,” Brockman said in a call with reporters Thursday. “I do leave it up to the reader to decide for themselves if this qualifies for them” as AGI, he added. “I think we’re there.”
Sure these models are solving problems, but going back to the capabilities, we are talking 99.99% has ADD, if you miss-word one word in a draft your little LLM friend suddenly goes Normal output when you are trying to email your doctors about your sons spots and a fever and vomiting to from warning of sun spots and CME’s and the end of the universe.
Astra was evaluated by the U.S. government under the White House’s new framework for ensuring new AI is safe for public release, Brockman said. “There was nothing that they came back saying ‘you need to change this,’” he said.
The answer of no answer from the admin is on the level of “and?” The thing right now AGI is so far off the scope if we are to call it what it is, There is no way right nows neural network AI will ever be able to learn like a human , because right now agentic AI learns all information that is inputted, Even given weights to learning, you could have a structural guide to building a nuclear reactor and you are within three misspelling of getting Dear Playboy letters to the editor over having a one night stand at a nuclear reactor.
Real human cognitive awareness knows when to ignore a quip, a joke or the nuggets of information that are meaningless due to intuition. When we are at the store and see the shelf in the Nuts section with a store label of “ass nuts” we do not think of some weird ass shaped nuts, we know it’s trail mix not a Kardashian ass.
When we see a completely hands of AI , Where it can learn and knows what not to learn and what to learn we can revisit this. Right now AI is cookie monster, it sees data it eats, This AI doesn’t know when to stop eating and what we are seeing is AI eating itself in the end. There is a human in the loop, if we were to get to a true level of Self governance of an AI there would have to be laws to be put in place to protect humans from themselves and the AI.
My final word here is Greg Brockman, Has Polished a turd and tried to call it new by adding nuts.
Attributions from:
Washington Post – OpenAI’s president claims AI is as capable as humans now
Did amazon discontinue The Fire Max 11?
Occasionally I use a tablet in my EDC when I am diagnosing broken computer hardware. It is lighter than carrying a laptop around and can for the most part do what a computer can do. This week, I noticed that my Amazon Stylus decided to play a permanent game of hide and seek, I spent hours looking for it. So after I gave up I went to BestBuy to replace the stylus. When I went to bestbuy.com and saw the stylus I saw that it was discounted to $9.99 and thought to myself “shit, they are either doing a hardware refresh or retiring the tablet.
Well.. I think I am right . I originally purchased the Fire Max 11 in July of 2023 for $149.99 near its release day, at the price I purchased it for it felt like a good every day tablet when doing stuff. I had a bit of worry that I might not be able to side load Google Apps to it, Iit took a total of five minutes to do it. Over all it is a good tablet when you need something you can fire and forget, I have left the tablet alone for almost a month at times and it still has a charge in it when I need it. But amazon discontinuing this tablet is a terrible thing. they basically are leaving their best tech level tablet to disappear into the ether.
Give or take this tablet has some power to it. Its hardware is slightly above entry level and its usefulness can be augmented by adding the google play store. The Samsung a11+ might be entry level but they screw there tablets up by putting layers of bullshit on it. When you have so much bullshit on a tablet you can’t kill and often samsung has so much bullshit baked in with its custom interface by the time you add your apps you are stuck with a $200 paperweight while waiting for your app to open.
But, Irony is deep here, The Tablet doesn’t appear on Amazon’s search anymore. I was thinking about getting another one for the SO because with google play added and her being in a job that deals with needing portability she could have used the Fire max 11 in her day to day travels. I was going to recycle the case I took off of the fire max and give her a fully cased Fire Max 11 if I could have purchased one.
When I lost my stylus, I was ready to order a new one from amazon, But best buy had it for $9.99. Best buy however did me dirty in the first stylus they shipped. The stylus they shipped was open box and parts missing and the battery already installed upside down. I mean what the hell, that’s like selling someone a pre-drank coffee and saying its “brand new”. I started a chat on best buy, and they came through with sending me a new Stylus with all the parts and made good on the replacement, they also sent it to me for free which is confusing but I am not going to complain for that. When I was fixing to return the Stylus to best buy I had gone on the site and noticed something else. They were also on clearance, the Fire Max 11 Keyboard Case at $17.99, So I did the best thing possible . Ordered that too!
Given, that I had payed $149.99 for the tablet , $9.99 for the stylus and $17.99 for the keyboard case the end game is you have a durable chromebook jr. End all you have about 90% of the function of a Chromebook and I saved a bit of money because I cobbled this together through a bit of sideloading with a device I already had and BestBuy dumping accessories for cheap.
Attributions:
Best Buy – Fire Max 11 Keyboard Case, Fire Max 11 Stylus Pen (On clearance get them while you can..)
Amazon – Fire Max 11 (sad to see you go… )
(Frankenshoes Followup) Salomon X ULTRA PIONEER MID with Carhartt Insoles
Shoes are an occasional topic here and I have had a few posts with shoes but this one has to be the strangest follow-up. I had Solomon X ULTRA PIONEER MID shoes and the insoles wore out fast which sucks but, as someone who doesn’t drive I expect these things. My normal go to shoes are Merrell or Salomon, Merrell are the go to war boots that survive just about everything, Solomon are the light weight shoes you do the million mile march in and they keep going.
But sometimes insoles do wear out , and they make life horrible. They are the inner base of the shoe that makes your day horrible or they make the many steps on your feet not feel like you are playing the drums with your feet. The insole was wandering around the shoe making pain in my feet. I deal with a lot of pain in my feet on the day to day as i am prone to muscle spasms .
Salomon – with their lightweight shoes, they somehow do cut the divide of weight and utility perfectly. They do not fall apart , they last for years. After buying these in early winter I wore these day to day as the traveling shoe. they manage to stay warm in winter and do not leak .. But I did notice the insole starting to shed its lining. A week ago went on a quest to replace the insole with preferably the insole that belongs with the shoes. Merrell does it I figured a higher end Mid would do the same.. No. I looked for an hour and kept falling back to the Carhartt Insite Technology Footbed CMI9000 Shoe Accessory. After Two days they shipped in and I was initially worried they would not fit.
They fit well into the shoe, they had a raised arch to comfort the arch, i put them on and thought this might cause pain and instead i decided to press on and see how it went. After a day the arch relaxed into the Mid , The insole more or less perfectly formed into place. while it adds a bit of weight the comfort level definitely went up.
Mentally… when you do something like this, it feels like using a Toyota part on a ford, Which to the average person would seem like a mortal sin. But the secret here is what the industry tries to make you not pay attention to, That parts can be used on other manufacturer parts within reason.
So when you do the math, I am taking an insole meant for people who do construction all day where weights and tolerances need to be at the top, than place it into a shoe that balances high impact and survivability . Conventionally i just took the best of both worlds where repeated day to day use has a base that is form fitting and comfortable to the point of repeated usage plays out to a higher degree.
While this only a week into this, One could hope this is a force multiplier and a message to a both companies. Carhartt makes boots to survive the Armageddon Salomon makes shoes to climb the armageddon, there is a convergence that both companies are missing here….
So my not so closing thought here is, Sometimes instinct of doing something may not be enough but sometimes taking the gut feeling leap of “this might work” sometimes pays off in kind. So if you need extra miles and extra comfort this frankenshoe experiment shall continue…
From the I told you so files. AI Coffeepots Strikes back.
It would seem my want of a good Non-AI coffeepot has been reinforced yet again. The IoT coffeepot has been caught spying.
A cluster of seemingly unrelated incidents ranging from exposed enterprise AI tools to a breached coffee machine has revealed the daunting reality that modern cyber risk is no longer confined to servers, endpoints or even employees. It now increasingly spans ecosystems, vendors and even the delivery mechanisms for the very tools designed to drive organizational productivity.
The problem with AI is it is veiled in a ton of secrecy that is no good for anyone. Because once the bad agents start figuring it out. We are in deep trouble. The convenience of the AI coffee pot might be nice but it comes with a ton of drawbacks most people don’t account for .
A digital forensics investigator, identified only as TR, was called in when a client suspected a rival had infiltrated their systems after a data breach. Instead of finding malicious software, TR discovered that an internet-enabled espresso machine, equipped with a default password, an outdated operating system, and no firewall, was the source of the leak. Threat actors exploited this device, which was connected to the client’s secure network, to exfiltrate sensitive data. The machine was sending packets internationally every time someone brewed a cup, bypassing all the client’s advanced security measures.
This does present the facts of IoT machines need just as much vetting as computers on a network, if your IT guy doesn’t find every IoT devices on the network he is creating a leak, and the corporate moto of just buy the cheapest thing is normally a recipe for disaster.
Firstly, Keep all of your IoT shit on its own network, If you have a store named BOBcorp, Put all IoT devices on BioT29384 network that is isolated from the main network. Second, You want a network monitor IoT devices are chatty in nature but if your network traffic jumps sniff it out and make sure its sanitized. IoT companies should give a master list of where their devices connect to. That way if your AI coffeepot is connecting to Nigeria you know something is wrong. Either that give google, Apple, Amazon, and other Hub Devices a choice to go through a master server on the devices Hub of choice, That way if all of the corps go through the hub device the IT staff have an easy way to poke at what the IoT stuff is doing.
By having a master hub list of devices if a device starts misbehaving or an attack vector is found. They can deauth the device. It stops companies from just vomiting out “smart” everything devices, That way if they lose there auth they will act fast to restore the trust in the devices.
Another thought here is with security layers is, that most IoT have BLE enabled by default, After pairing there should be a dipswitch to turn off the BLE until its needed for repairing to the network. BLE is notorious for sniffing what is around it .
FirstNet Trusted™ Could really do something to come out on top here. Because of corporate laziness of “just buy the cheapest thing” leads to the problem in the first place. since they are part of AT&T and there network knowhow.
Even passed that Cellphones on the corp networks need to be on their own network, Workers who place IoT or cellphones on the larger corp networks need to be taken off and the employee trained for network safety, it would create a top down security that would even extend to the workers home after. Rather than finding out too late that there beloved AI coffeepot has been stealing secrets for Months.
In the end, You are better off with a Coffeepot with a switch , and if you need it smart. Add a smart plug to it and than you can control it from afar without having so much bloatware you never know what it is connecting to.
Anyways, back to my non smart non AI coffee….
Attributions from:
The Cybersecurity Hit List: From Enterprise AI to Compromised Coffee Machines -pymnts.com
We need to talk about “smart” devices… -Coffeecommander.net
Internet-connected coffee machine reportedly led to data breach -Scworld.com
FirstNet Trusted™ FirstNet Trusted™by AT&T
Googles Internet of things – By Google
Hyperscaler AI Earnings Calls Today .(updated)
Today will be interesting, we will learn how much large corps are going to play the shell game with earnings.
Amazon (AMZN) will report its first quarter earnings alongside rivals Google (GOOG, GOOGL), Meta (META), and Microsoft (MSFT) on Wednesday, with investors looking for more signs that the company’s massive artificial intelligence spending is paying off.
My personal feeling.. No. However this does not stop them from playing the shell game of hiding costs and contracts that have not been put to action yet. These companies account for 650 billion of cape ex spending.
The problem here is the market is betting the farm on a large loss leader. Big Tech knows this and they are trying to engineer there way through this problem by throwing more money and more power at it . AI as it stands right now is about as efficient as a 16 cylinder engine with only one sparkplug working. The problem is with AI being a subsidized land grab at the moment the scale is not fit for its current market. With A Slop being the top thing with AI right now and your average query to AI wasting enough power to light a lightbulb for months. In part why the Sam Altmans and the Bill Gates of the world looking for nuclear power plants to offset these cost to the of thousands of GWh of power.
Right now with power costs soaring, the cost per query is not sustainable, When your average British person can warm there tea 50 times over for a slop query. The problem here is the rate of return on LLM’s is degrading, as LLM’s are looking for more training data they are getting flooded with the very slop they are creating, The people now jailbreaking and hijacking AI’s to act like spongebob squarepants the sexy pirate is filling AI’s systems with irrelevant data to the point its becoming its own fever dream. So the 650B investment is poisoning the future well of returns.
For the quarter, Amazon is expected to report earnings per share (EPS) of $1.62 on revenue of $177.2 billion, according to Bloomberg analyst consensus estimates. The company saw earnings per share of $1.59 and revenue of $155.6 billion in Q1 last year.
Sure a revenue of 177.2 billion. but they are spending like they have a blank check. Eventually when that check clears will Amazon have enough in the bank to cover the check. When Returns on AI is only 15b the rate of return is much slower than the spending. They are building out now and hoping that the machine will have a return later or get bailed out in the end. We’ve heard this all before “too big to fail”. To any person that knows what that line means they just clenched their anus.
But in the end these calls will be interesting, If the earnings call shows a positive it shows that these companies are playing the shell game. Amazon is only getting 15b return per quarterly run shows that the math is flawed. To get that expensive back that will take 3.33 years, if Amazon stops investing today.
And the final flaw is , What if some other game changer comes out of a garage that has a home grown AI out of there garage that makes all these data centers look like nothing more than space heaters for towns. Deepseek has constantly outdone large llms for less than 5% of the money and that’s a secret that the hyperscalers hope you don’t see.
Anyways.. back to my morning coffee.
Quotes and attributions taken from: yahoo finance: Amazon Q1 earnings put the spotlight on AI spending and revenue
Post mortem: It would appear that all of the companies are posting strong numbers. How long this will last is the greatest question. Further is the biggest question. Metas numbers was the 8k layoff and 6k closed positions a part of there jump?
Every company beat there expectations, what does that mean to the little guy. Absolutely nothing. no lowered prices, it just means some CEO was able to light there cigar with a 100$ bill today.
Alphabet (GOOGL) $5.11 (Beat), Amazon (AMZN) $2.78 (Beat),Microsoft (MSFT) $4.13 (Beat), Meta (META) $6.71 (Est).